What-If Scenarios & Sensitivity
US total · 8-week horizonCounterfactual crude stock paths from changes to imports and refinery runs
Scenario controls
Adjust forward assumptions, then run the scenario to recalculate the stock path
Inflow
Seaborne and pipeline crude arriving into the US
Outflow
Change in crude processed, from turnarounds or higher margins
Results match the current inputs.
Baseline vs scenario
Commercial crude stocks over the next 8 weeks, million barrels
- Baseline
- Scenario
Baseline ending stock
426.6 M bbl
Nov 20, model + seasonal path
Scenario ending stock
426.6 M bbl
Variance ±0.0M (±0.00%)
Net flow change
±0.00 M b/d
Balanced flow
Gemini AI Assistant
Preview · not connected
Imports and runs offset
Just nowA 5% rise in imports roughly cancels a 2% rise in refinery runs over the 8-week horizon.
Linear approximation
10m agoThis sandbox applies flow changes linearly. The trained model will replace it in a later stage.
Suggested questions
Forecast deviation schedule
Week-by-week breakdown of the scenario against the baseline
| Week | Baseline | Flow change | Simulated stock | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 (Oct 02) | 412.7 M | ±0.00 M b/d | 412.7 M | ±0.0 M |
| Week 2 (Oct 09) | 414.4 M | ±0.00 M b/d | 414.4 M | ±0.0 M |
| Week 3 (Oct 16) | 416.6 M | ±0.00 M b/d | 416.6 M | ±0.0 M |
| Week 4 (Oct 23) | 418.8 M | ±0.00 M b/d | 418.8 M | ±0.0 M |
| Week 5 (Oct 30) | 418.8 M | ±0.00 M b/d | 418.8 M | ±0.0 M |
| Week 6 (Nov 06) | 421.4 M | ±0.00 M b/d | 421.4 M | ±0.0 M |
| Week 7 (Nov 13) | 426.8 M | ±0.00 M b/d | 426.8 M | ±0.0 M |
| Week 8 (Nov 20) | 426.6 M | ±0.00 M b/d | 426.6 M | ±0.0 M |