Market Analysis & Empirical Differentials
EIA · FRED weeklySpot benchmarks, the Brent−WTI spread and exports · Apr 3, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026
WTI Cushing spot
NYMEX$74.12/bbl
Brent spot
ICE$79.20/bbl
Brent−WTI spread
+$5.08/bbl
US crude exports
3.84M b/d
Historical spot prices
Weekly benchmark settlements
- WTI $74.12
- Brent $79.20
Weekly closes, not daily. Synced Sep 25, 2026
Spread vs exports
Brent−WTI spread against weekly US crude exports
- Exports (M b/d)
- Spread ($/bbl)
Correlation, not causation.
Gemini AI Assistant
Preview · not connected
Brent premium holds
4m agoBrent is trading above WTI, which keeps US Gulf Coast exports competitive.
Weak link to exports
22m agoThe spread and weekly exports only move loosely together here. Treat it as context, not a signal.
Suggested questions
Predictive fit validation
LightGBM one-week-ahead estimates regressed on the official EIA change, last 52 weeks
- Fitted line
- Perfect fit (y = x)
Spread & exports
Export window openBrent trades $5.08 above WTI, against a 5-year average of $3.41. Over the selected range the spread and exports correlate at r = -0.19.
Bias on deep draws
NormalisedOn the 5 weeks with draws deeper than 5M barrels, the model under-called the draw by 902 kb on average. Large draws are shrunk toward zero.
Price volatility
normal regimeExpected absolute WTI move for the week ending Oct 2, 2026 is ±3.4%, estimated from recent weekly returns.
Correlation, not causation. Figures are revised when each weekly EIA report is published.